Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Ignorance Management

Donald Rumsfeld is credited with this legendary remark back in February 2002:
“...as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
Known Knowns

The bottom left quadrant is the simplest, it describes the things that we know we know. Here, the real sixty-five thousand dollar question is whether the information and knowledge we have is actually used in making decisions.

Unknown Knowns

Moving north, we have the things we don’t know we know. Rumsfeld never actually covered this ignorance domain, but what the heck, we’ll still give him credit. This is the area where knowledge and information management kicks in: people who are making decisions are not aware of relevant and important information and knowledge that the organization already possesses. So this is where structured knowledge and information audits can help to raise the visibility of knowledge and information assets to those who can usefully deploy them.

Known Unknowns

In the bottom right domain we have the things we know we don’t know, but need to: the gaps, the worrying but significant questions that we feel need answers. This is the domain of business and competitive intelligence. We need to frame precise questions, and then figure out the kind of information and knowledge carriers or sources that are likely to hold answers to these questions (experts, research reports, publications, website?), where these sources are likely to be found, the channels where this information flows. We also need to have a good sense of how to judge the relative authority and value of the sources. Once found, of course, they migrate into the known knowns domain, as candidates for use.

Unknown Unknowns

This is the domain that creased up the American media when Rumsfeld pronounced. These are the most difficult things to pin down, the things we don’t know we don’t know. Sometimes the importance of this domain shows up in a general sense of unease, that things seem too simple, that there’s something going on that we are not equipped to see. I’ve shown this here as an open domain, and this is where we go prospecting, blundering around in the fog carefully bumping into things and giving them shape as questions. Once they are fairly well-formed as questions, we have known unknowns, and can start a structured search for answers. In this domain, curiosity, sensitivity to details, noticing and exploring differences of perception among different people, and alertness to small changes, are all invaluable practices. Itemizing our basic assumptions and challenging them produces very good candidates for known-unknown questions. If we want to pick up weak signals of important changes that require an early response, then we need to be particularly sensitive to what we know or assume about our stakeholders and how that changes over time, also our capabilities mapped against those of our competitors, and other changes in our external environment. This is the domain where structured frameworks such as Porter’s Five Forces come into their own, because the use of these structures almost always shows up gaps in our thinking and knowledge.

As the diagram suggests, the Rumsfeld Ignorance Management Framework is all about dynamics: prospecting in the unknown unknown domain to generate useful questions, which can be sourced in the known unknown domain, and brought across to the known knowns for application and use. Similarly, with internally held knowledge, auditing and publicizing the presence of relevant knowledge, so that it too can become incorporated into known knowns and usefully applied. It’s all about enlarging the known knowns domain through disciplined practices and activities in the domains of ignorance.

Turns out, he knew what he was talking about. Click here for more about Ignorance Management.

All of the above is from the website - www.greencamelion.com

1 comment:

Roger said...

How about managing your own ignorance and shutting down this blog? Is that too much to ask.